A method for determining safety capacity based on spatial-temporal distribution of crowds:case study in Shichahai scenic area, Beijing

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.06.018

Abstract

Abstract: In order to prevent crowds gathering risks and trampling events in public places. Based on spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of crowds gathering in public places, unbalanced coefficient of spatial distribution and variation coefficient of temporal distribution of crowd gathering were proposed to improve safety capacity algorithm with consideration of evacuation time, basic algorithm of instantaneous safety capacity and daily safety capacity were improved. Taking Beijing Shichahai scenic spot as an example, corrected instantaneous safety capacity and daily safety capacity were respectively 47.8% and 33% of base value. The results show that difference of spatial and temporal distribution of population gathering is the root cause of high risk of population gathering in local time or specific region. Considering space unbalance and time fluctuation is helpful to improve accuracy of regional safety capacity, case proves that the improved method is more in line with the needs of safety management in public places.

Key words: crowds gathering, safety capacity, spatial-temporal distribution characteristics, evacuation, spatial unbalance coefficient, time fluctuation coefficient, Shichahai scenic area

CLC Number:

X928.03

HU Cheng, LI Junwei, LI Qiang, CHEN Jin. A method for determining safety capacity based on spatial-temporal distribution of crowds:case study in Shichahai scenic area, Beijing[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(6): 136-143.

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